数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー

過去の記録 ~03/28次回の予定今後の予定 03/29~


2015年10月21日(水)

14:55-16:40   数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 128演習室号室
大森亮介 氏 (北海道大学人獣共通感染症リサーチセンター バイオインフォマティクス部門)
The distribution of the duration of immunity determines the periodicity of Mycoplasma pneumoniae incidence. (JAPANESE)
[ 講演概要 ]
Estimating the periodicity of outbreaks is sometimes equivalent to the
prediction of future outbreaks. However, the periodicity may change
over time so understanding the mechanism of outbreak periodicity is
important. So far, mathematical modeling studies suggest several
drivers for outbreak periodicity including, 1) environmental factors
(e.g. temperature) and 2) host behavior (contact patterns between host
individuals). Among many diseases, multiple determinants can be
considered to cause the outbreak periodicity and it is difficult to
understand the periodicity quantitatively. Here we introduce our case
study of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) which shows three to five year
periodic outbreaks, with multiple candidates for determinants for the
outbreak periodicity being narrowed down to the last one, the variance
of the length of the immunity duration. To our knowledge this is the
first study showing that the variance in the length of the immunity
duration is essential for the periodicity of the outbreaks.
[ 参考URL ]
http://researchers.general.hokudai.ac.jp/profile/ja.e3OkdvtshzEabOVZ2w5OYw==.html