Mathematical Biology Seminar

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2015/10/21

14:55-16:40   Room #128演習室 (Graduate School of Math. Sci. Bldg.)
Ryosuke Omori (Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Japan)
The distribution of the duration of immunity determines the periodicity of Mycoplasma pneumoniae incidence. (JAPANESE)
[ Abstract ]
Estimating the periodicity of outbreaks is sometimes equivalent to the
prediction of future outbreaks. However, the periodicity may change
over time so understanding the mechanism of outbreak periodicity is
important. So far, mathematical modeling studies suggest several
drivers for outbreak periodicity including, 1) environmental factors
(e.g. temperature) and 2) host behavior (contact patterns between host
individuals). Among many diseases, multiple determinants can be
considered to cause the outbreak periodicity and it is difficult to
understand the periodicity quantitatively. Here we introduce our case
study of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) which shows three to five year
periodic outbreaks, with multiple candidates for determinants for the
outbreak periodicity being narrowed down to the last one, the variance
of the length of the immunity duration. To our knowledge this is the
first study showing that the variance in the length of the immunity
duration is essential for the periodicity of the outbreaks.
[ Reference URL ]
http://researchers.general.hokudai.ac.jp/profile/ja.e3OkdvtshzEabOVZ2w5OYw==.html