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数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー
過去の記録 ～05/23｜次回の予定｜今後の予定 05/24～
2014年12月22日(月)
15:00-16:20 数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 122号室
Don Yueping 氏 (Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Estimating the seroincidence of pertussis in Japan
Don Yueping 氏 (Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Estimating the seroincidence of pertussis in Japan
[ 講演概要 ]
Despite relatively high vaccination coverage of pertussis for decades, the disease keeps circulating among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals and a periodic large epidemic is observed every 4 years. To understand the transmission dynamics, specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against pertussis toxin (PT) have been routinely measured in Japan. Using the cross-sectional serological survey data with a known decay rate of antibody titres as a function of time since infection, we estimate the age-dependent seroincidence of pertussis. The estimated incidence of pertussis declined with age, the shape of which will be extremely useful for reconstructing the transmission dynamics and considering effective countermeasures.
Despite relatively high vaccination coverage of pertussis for decades, the disease keeps circulating among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals and a periodic large epidemic is observed every 4 years. To understand the transmission dynamics, specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against pertussis toxin (PT) have been routinely measured in Japan. Using the cross-sectional serological survey data with a known decay rate of antibody titres as a function of time since infection, we estimate the age-dependent seroincidence of pertussis. The estimated incidence of pertussis declined with age, the shape of which will be extremely useful for reconstructing the transmission dynamics and considering effective countermeasures.
