数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー

過去の記録 ~08/07次回の予定今後の予定 08/08~


2018年07月27日(金)

15:00-16:00   数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 118号室
Somdatta Sinha 氏 (Department of Biological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Mohali INDIA)
Modelling Malaria in India: Statistical, Mathematical and Graphical Approaches
[ 講演概要 ]
Malaria has existed in India since antiquity. Different periods of
elimination and control policies have been adopted by the government for
tackling the disease. Malaria parasite was dissevered in India by Sir
Ronald Ross who also developed the simplest mathematical model in early
1900. Malaria modelling has since come through many variations that
incorporated various intrinsic and extrinsic/environmental factors to
describe the disease progression in population. Collection of disease
incidence and prevalence data, however, has been quite variable with both
governmental and non-governmental agencies independently collecting data at
different space and time scales. In this talk I will describe our work on
modelling malaria prevalence using three different approaches. For monthly
prevalence data, I will discuss (i) a regression-based statistical model
based on a specific data-set, and (ii) a general mathematical model that
fits the same data. For more coarse-grained temporal (yearly) data, I will
show graphical analysis that uncovers some useful information from the mass
of data tables. This presentation aims to highlight the suitability of
multiple modelling methods for disease prevalence from variable quality data.