数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー

過去の記録 ~02/05次回の予定今後の予定 02/06~


2014年12月22日(月)

15:00-16:20   数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 122号室
Don Yueping 氏 (Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Estimating the seroincidence of pertussis in Japan
[ 講演概要 ]
Despite relatively high vaccination coverage of pertussis for decades, the disease keeps circulating among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals and a periodic large epidemic is observed every 4 years. To understand the transmission dynamics, specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against pertussis toxin (PT) have been routinely measured in Japan. Using the cross-sectional serological survey data with a known decay rate of antibody titres as a function of time since infection, we estimate the age-dependent seroincidence of pertussis. The estimated incidence of pertussis declined with age, the shape of which will be extremely useful for reconstructing the transmission dynamics and considering effective countermeasures.