数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー

過去の記録 ~01/29次回の予定今後の予定 01/30~


2012年11月30日(金)

14:30-15:30   数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 056号室
Michael Tildesley 氏 ( Infectious Disease Epidemiology (Modelling) at the University of Warwick)
Targeting control in the presence of uncertainty (ENGLISH)
[ 講演概要 ]
The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital to enable modellers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, epidemic data are not available whilst necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. Here we investigate the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and optimal control policies in the event of uncertainty. We focus on investigating predictions in the presence of uncertainty regarding contact networks, demographic data and epidemiological parameters. Our results indicate that mathematical models could be utilized in regions where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock.