数理人口学・数理生物学セミナー

過去の記録 ~04/13次回の予定今後の予定 04/14~


2007年06月13日(水)

14:40-15:40   数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 123号室
Alex Cook 氏 (Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics,
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences,
Heriot-Watt University)
Return of the Giant Hogweed: modelling the invasion of Britain by a dangerous alien plant
[ 講演概要 ]
As a result of changing climate and land use, as well as due to human intervention, increasingly species are moving to new abitats. We wish to understand the risk of invasive species entering new areas, and as an example consider the spread of Giant Hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) from SW Asia in Great Britain, a species that has been damaging Britain's biodiversity since it was introduced in the 19th C and which is dangerous to human health. We construct a spatio-temporal stochastic model for its spread (both local and at distance) that takes account of covariates such as the heterogeneous land-cover and climate of the island. We then fit the model directly to observed data. Fitting the model was non-trivial and involved the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The approach taken allows spatio-temporal predictions of the future spread of the weed can be made, consistent with the invasion history; it also allows the effect of varying habitats and climate to be understood. The approach we have taken can be generalised to other biological systems exhibiting stochastic variability, and there are clear parallels to epidemic models for the spread of disease within heterogeneous host populations.
[ 参考URL ]
http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/~alexc/