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Mathematical Biology Seminar
Seminar information archive ～04/18｜Next seminar｜Future seminars 04/19～
2014/05/28
14:50-16:20 Room #128 (Graduate School of Math. Sci. Bldg.)
Keisuke Ejima (Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo
)
Modeling the social contagion: The obesity epidemic and its control (JAPANESE)
Keisuke Ejima (Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo
)
Modeling the social contagion: The obesity epidemic and its control (JAPANESE)
[ Abstract ]
:As an obesity epidemic has grown worldwide, a variety of
intervention programs have been considered, but a scientific approach
to comparatively assessing the control programs has still to be
considered. The present study aims to describe an obesity epidemic by
employing a simple mathematical model that accounts for both social
contagion and non-contagious hazards of obesity, thereby comparing the
effectiveness of different types of interventions.
An epidemiological model is devised to describe the time- and
age-dependent risk of obesity, the hazard of which is dealt with as
both dependent on and independent of obesity prevalence, and
parameterizing the model using empirically observed data. The
equilibrium prevalence is investigated as our epidemiological outcome,
assessing its sensitivity to different parameters that regulate the
impact of intervention programs and qualitatively comparing the
effectiveness. We compare the effectiveness of different types of
interventions, including those directed to never-obese individuals
(i.e. primary prevention) and toward obese and ex-obese individuals
(i.e. secondary prevention).
The optimal choice of intervention programs considerably varies with
the transmission coefficient of obesity, and a limited
transmissibility led us to favour preventing weight gain among
never-obese individuals. An abrupt decline in the prevalence is
expected when the hazards of obesity through contagious and
non-contagious routes fall into a particular parameter space, with a
high sensitivity to the transmission potential of obesity from person
to person. When a combination of two control strategies can be
selected, primary and secondary preventions yielded similar population
impacts and the superiority of the effectiveness depends on the
strength of the interventions at an individual level.
The optimality of intervention programs depends on the contagiousness
of obesity. Filling associated data gaps of obesity transmission would
help systematically understand the epidemiological dynamics and
consider required control programs.
:As an obesity epidemic has grown worldwide, a variety of
intervention programs have been considered, but a scientific approach
to comparatively assessing the control programs has still to be
considered. The present study aims to describe an obesity epidemic by
employing a simple mathematical model that accounts for both social
contagion and non-contagious hazards of obesity, thereby comparing the
effectiveness of different types of interventions.
An epidemiological model is devised to describe the time- and
age-dependent risk of obesity, the hazard of which is dealt with as
both dependent on and independent of obesity prevalence, and
parameterizing the model using empirically observed data. The
equilibrium prevalence is investigated as our epidemiological outcome,
assessing its sensitivity to different parameters that regulate the
impact of intervention programs and qualitatively comparing the
effectiveness. We compare the effectiveness of different types of
interventions, including those directed to never-obese individuals
(i.e. primary prevention) and toward obese and ex-obese individuals
(i.e. secondary prevention).
The optimal choice of intervention programs considerably varies with
the transmission coefficient of obesity, and a limited
transmissibility led us to favour preventing weight gain among
never-obese individuals. An abrupt decline in the prevalence is
expected when the hazards of obesity through contagious and
non-contagious routes fall into a particular parameter space, with a
high sensitivity to the transmission potential of obesity from person
to person. When a combination of two control strategies can be
selected, primary and secondary preventions yielded similar population
impacts and the superiority of the effectiveness depends on the
strength of the interventions at an individual level.
The optimality of intervention programs depends on the contagiousness
of obesity. Filling associated data gaps of obesity transmission would
help systematically understand the epidemiological dynamics and
consider required control programs.
