Mathematical Biology Seminar

Seminar information archive ~04/01Next seminarFuture seminars 04/02~


15:00-16:00   Room #128 (Graduate School of Math. Sci. Bldg.)
Saki Takahashi (Princeton University)
The ecological dynamics of non-polio enteroviruses: Case studies from China and Japan (ENGLISH)
[ Abstract ]
As we approach global eradication of poliovirus (Enterovirus C species), its relatives are rapidly emerging as public health threats. One of these viruses, Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), has been implicated in large outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), a childhood illness that has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past fifteen years. HFMD is typically a self-limiting disease, but a small proportion of EV-A71 infections lead to the development of neurological and systemic complications that can be fatal. EV-A71 also exhibits puzzling spatial characteristics: the virus circulates at low levels worldwide, but has so far been endemic and associated with severe disease exclusively in Asia. In this talk, I will present findings from a recent study that we did to characterize the transmission dynamics of HFMD in China, where over one million cases are reported each year. I will then describe recent efforts to explain the observed multi-annual cyclicity of EV-A71 incidence in Japan and to probe the contributions of other serotypes to the observed burden of HFMD. In closing, I will discuss plans for unifying data and modeling to study this heterogeneity in the endemicity of EV-A71, as well as to broadly better understand the spatial and viral dynamics of this group of infections.