Seminar on Probability and Statistics

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Organizer(s) Nakahiro Yoshida, Hiroki Masuda, Teppei Ogihara, Yuta Koike

2015/08/07

14:40-15:50   Room #052 (Graduate School of Math. Sci. Bldg.)
UBUKATA, Masato (Kushiro Public University of Economics)
Effectiveness of time-varying minimum value at risk and expected shortfall hedging
[ Abstract ]
This paper assesses the incremental value of time-varying minimum value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) hedging strategies over unconditional hedging strategy. The conditional futures hedge ratios are calculated through estimation of multivariate volatility models under a skewed and leptokurtic distribution and Monte Carlo simulation for conditional skewness and kurtosis of hedged portfolio returns. We examine DCC-GJR models with or without encompassing realized covariance measure (RCM) from high-frequency data under a multivariate skewed Student's t-distribution. In the out-of-sample analysis with a daily rebalancing approach, the empirical results show that the conditional minimum VaR and ES hedging strategies outperform the unconditional hedging strategy. We find that the use of RCM improves the futures hedging performance for a short hedge, although the degree of improvement is small relative to that when switching from unconditional to conditional.