日時: 2014年11月28日(金) 16:30〜17:30
会場: 数理科学研究科棟(駒場) 123号室
西浦 博 氏 (東京大学大学院医学研究科)
Estimating the reproduction numbers of emerging infectious diseases: Case studies of Ebola and dengue
The basic and effective reproduction numbers offer epidemiological insights into the growth of generations of infectious disease cases, informing the required control effort. Recently, the renewal process model has appeared to be a usefu tool for quantifying the reproduction numbers in real-time using only case data. Here I present methods, results and pitfalls of the use of renewal process model, presenting recent case studies of Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and a massive epidemic of dengue fever in the summer of Japan 2014.